NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
114–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26223432114
MIN28273331119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 43 34 5 14
Duop Reath S 39 26 3 1
Dalano Banton S 33 18 7 4
Kris Murray S 35 14 5 2
Rayan Rupert 23 13 6 0
Jabari Walker S 28 4 8 1
Justin Minaya 10 3 1 0
Moses Brown 9 2 3 2
Ashton Hagans 20 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 39 25 16 0
Mike Conley S 29 19 2 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 21 14 4 1
Anthony Edwards 35 13 4 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 21 13 1 1
Naz Reid 23 12 5 0
Kyle Anderson 29 9 3 5
Jaden McDaniels S 24 9 4 1
Monte Morris 19 5 1 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
18%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
14%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Mike Conley MIN
8%
7 Duop Reath POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
8%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
33%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.0 4.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.4 7.6 3.7
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.2 4.0 5.7
4 Naz Reid MIN 12.8 6.0 1.5
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 12.1 1.4
6 Mike Conley MIN 10.7 3.5 4.9
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.1 3.5 1.4
8 Toumani Camara POR 9.9 5.6 1.5
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.6 2.8 2.7
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.5 3.6 1.5
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.2 6.2 1.2
12 Duop Reath POR 7.7 3.8 0.8
13 Dalano Banton POR 7.4 2.9 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.0 3.5 4.2
15 Kris Murray POR 6.5 3.7 1.8
16 Ashton Hagans POR 5.8 2.5 3.0
17 Monte Morris MIN 5.8 2.0 1.9
18 Rayan Rupert POR 4.0 2.1 0.9
19 Moses Brown POR 2.9 3.8 0.4
20 Ibou Badji POR 1.9 1.9 0.6
21 Luka Garza MIN 1.7 0.6 0.3
22 Daishen Nix MIN 1.6 0.4 0.3
23 Justin Minaya POR 1.2 0.9 0.3
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.