NBA games

LAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
106–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC35202625106
MIL25232540113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 29 5 1
James Harden S 37 29 4 8
Kawhi Leonard S 37 16 4 5
Daniel Theis 15 7 6 1
Norman Powell 34 6 3 3
Ivica Zubac S 24 6 11 4
Bones Hyland 11 5 1 1
Terance Mann S 19 4 3 1
Amir Coffey 26 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 42 41 4 4
Bobby Portis 30 28 16 2
Patrick Beverley S 34 12 9 2
Pat Connaughton 17 8 1 0
Brook Lopez S 31 6 6 3
AJ Green 22 6 2 3
Malik Beasley S 29 5 4 2
Danilo Gallinari 17 4 2 3
Jae Crowder S 18 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Paul George LAC
14%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Terance Mann LAC
10%
8 Jae Crowder MIL
7%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
10 Daniel Theis LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 23.4 4.9 6.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.6 5.9 3.7
3 James Harden LAC 19.5 5.4 6.8
4 Paul George LAC 18.2 4.4 3.7
5 Bobby Portis MIL 15.6 6.9 2.3
6 Norman Powell LAC 13.0 2.8 1.5
7 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.2 1.7
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.4 5.0 1.9
9 Terance Mann LAC 10.0 4.7 1.8
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 9.5 7.5 1.4
11 Amir Coffey LAC 7.8 2.5 1.7
12 Jae Crowder MIL 7.1 4.0 1.8
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.1 3.7 2.6
14 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.7 2.9 2.6
15 Xavier Moon LAC 5.9 2.5 2.3
16 AJ Green MIL 5.9 1.7 0.9
17 Daniel Theis LAC 5.8 4.6 1.4
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.3 5.0 1.2
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.2 2.0 1.3
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.1 1.6 1.1
21 Brandon Boston LAC 3.4 1.4 0.5
22 Bones Hyland LAC 3.2 1.3 1.6
23 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 2.7 0.7 1.1
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.2 1.0
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.2 0.7
26 P.J. Tucker LAC 1.9 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.