NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
118–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28382329118
PHX24283325110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 35 8 9
Jalen Williams S 33 22 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 32 14 9 2
Luguentz Dort S 31 13 5 0
Josh Giddey S 19 10 1 2
Isaiah Joe 15 8 1 0
Aaron Wiggins 22 7 3 0
Cason Wallace 18 5 2 1
Gordon Hayward 16 2 3 1
Bismack Biyombo 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 34 31 4 6
Kevin Durant S 36 20 4 3
Eric Gordon 30 15 0 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 14 31 4
Royce O'Neale S 33 9 3 4
Grayson Allen S 34 8 2 3
Drew Eubanks 11 6 3 1
Saben Lee 16 5 2 2
Bol Bol 7 2 1 0
David Roddy 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Layup (2 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes two point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Eric Gordon PHX
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
41%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.5 7.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.4 8.1 5.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.3 4.6 5.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 20.5 4.3 5.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.1 8.8 3.1
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.3 11.2 4.8
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.8 5.8 2.8
8 Grayson Allen PHX 11.8 3.7 3.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.7 1.7
10 Josh Giddey OKC 10.8 5.0 3.3
11 Eric Gordon PHX 10.7 2.1 1.7
12 David Roddy PHX 7.7 3.3 1.6
13 Bol Bol PHX 7.7 5.0 0.9
14 Gordon Hayward OKC 7.6 3.7 2.5
15 Thaddeus Young PHX 7.5 5.1 2.1
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.2 2.8 1.1
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.1 1.2
18 Cason Wallace OKC 6.0 2.3 1.2
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 4.4 0.7
20 Josh Okogie PHX 4.9 2.3 1.2
21 Bismack Biyombo OKC 4.4 5.1 1.1
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.8 2.1 1.0
23 Saben Lee PHX 3.6 1.9 1.0
24 Mike Muscala OKC 3.0 1.6 0.5
25 Theo Maledon PHX 3.0 1.4 1.5
26 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.9 1.4 0.7
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.1 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.