NBA games

IND @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND16322928105
SA26263431117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
T.J. McConnell 27 26 2 5
Pascal Siakam S 38 21 8 1
Myles Turner S 30 16 10 0
Bennedict Mathurin 31 13 3 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 12 6 8
Andrew Nembhard S 21 7 3 1
Jalen Smith 12 4 7 0
Aaron Nesmith S 28 4 1 2
Obi Toppin 16 2 2 0
Kendall Brown 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 31 12 6
Malaki Branham S 31 18 4 6
Keldon Johnson 27 17 4 2
Devin Vassell S 37 17 9 5
Jeremy Sochan S 34 12 8 4
Zach Collins 16 11 2 2
Blake Wesley 19 9 1 2
Tre Jones S 30 2 1 4
Cedi Osman 14 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
13%
3 Devin Vassell SA
13%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
12%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.6 10.5 5.0
2 Devin Vassell SA 24.1 4.8 5.5
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 6.4 3.9
4 Myles Turner IND 18.4 7.9 1.9
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.3 3.6 10.0
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.0 4.9 3.0
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.3 4.6 2.3
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.3 3.7 2.3
9 Tre Jones SA 12.2 3.8 6.1
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.6 5.7 2.1
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.4 2.8 3.7
12 T.J. McConnell IND 10.2 3.2 5.0
13 Jalen Smith IND 10.1 5.6 1.3
14 Zach Collins SA 9.0 4.2 2.7
15 Malaki Branham SA 8.9 2.4 1.8
16 Obi Toppin IND 8.2 3.4 1.6
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.7 4.7 1.1
18 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 1.8 3.1
19 Dominick Barlow SA 5.6 4.8 1.3
20 Cedi Osman SA 5.4 2.2 1.6
21 Jarace Walker IND 5.1 2.7 1.6
22 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.6 2.0 0.6
23 Kendall Brown IND 2.8 1.3 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.7 1.1 0.8
25 James Johnson IND 2.6 1.3 0.9
26 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.8 0.7
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.