NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
106–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29192731106
TOR27253029111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 37 26 10 3
Miles Bridges S 40 20 9 4
Grant Williams S 40 18 13 5
Davis Bertans 26 14 3 0
Vasilije Micic S 36 12 2 6
Bryce McGowens 16 8 1 2
Tre Mann S 30 6 4 4
JT Thor 8 2 3 0
Marques Bolden 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 35 23 8 5
Immanuel Quickley S 36 22 7 11
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 17 5 0
Ochai Agbaji S 33 13 9 1
Jordan Nwora 18 11 4 0
Gradey Dick 24 11 4 0
Jakob Poeltl S 15 8 2 3
Kelly Olynyk 26 4 4 4
D.J. Carton 12 2 1 1
Jontay Porter 7 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes alley oop layup (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
11%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
11%
7 Tre Mann CHA
10%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
9 Leaky Black CHA
9%
10 Grant Williams CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.2 5.6 5.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.7 8.0 3.8
3 Brandon Miller CHA 19.4 4.8 3.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 4.7 5.4
5 Nick Richards CHA 13.6 9.2 1.3
6 Grant Williams CHA 13.5 4.8 2.2
7 Tre Mann CHA 12.9 5.2 4.9
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 10.6 2.8
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.1 3.1 2.0
10 Gradey Dick TOR 10.1 2.5 1.5
11 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.5 4.4 3.3
12 Vasilije Micic CHA 8.6 2.1 5.3
13 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.1 2.9 1.1
14 Chris Boucher TOR 5.5 3.7 0.8
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.4 1.9 1.2
16 Davis Bertans CHA 5.2 1.3 0.8
17 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.5 2.0 1.0
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.4 2.0 0.8
19 D.J. Carton TOR 3.7 1.3 0.8
20 Leaky Black CHA 3.3 2.2 1.0
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 1.4 0.9
22 Jontay Porter TOR 3.1 2.2 0.9
23 JT Thor CHA 1.9 1.1 0.5
24 Marques Bolden CHA 1.8 2.5 0.4
25 Amari Bailey CHA 1.5 0.6 0.3
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.