NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
91–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2723212091
ORL31283024113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Fournier 26 17 1 5
Simone Fontecchio 33 15 4 4
Jalen Duren S 25 11 4 2
Isaiah Stewart S 27 10 4 2
Jaden Ivey S 25 10 1 0
Cade Cunningham S 23 9 2 7
James Wiseman 15 8 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 33 8 6 1
Marcus Sasser 25 3 3 4
Troy Brown Jr. 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 29 8 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 19 8 3
Markelle Fultz 16 16 3 1
Franz Wagner S 29 13 8 1
Jalen Suggs S 30 11 5 3
Gary Harris S 29 8 2 4
Moritz Wagner 14 6 3 2
Anthony Black 3 3 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 13 2 2 1
Goga Bitadze 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
16%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.5 4.9 7.2
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.2 5.2 5.3
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 6.6 6.5
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.2 3.1 4.3
5 Jalen Duren DET 14.7 10.8 2.9
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.1 5.8 1.8
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 3.2 3.7
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.8 6.6 1.9
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 5.8 2.3
10 Simone Fontecchio DET 11.6 3.7 1.9
11 Cole Anthony ORL 11.5 3.9 2.8
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.0 4.6 1.1
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.3 4.3 3.1
14 Quentin Grimes DET 7.9 2.9 1.5
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.8 2.2 1.6
16 Marcus Sasser DET 7.7 1.6 3.8
17 Evan Fournier DET 6.4 2.2 1.1
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.6 1.6 2.4
19 James Wiseman DET 5.2 4.2 0.9
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.1 5.2 0.6
21 Anthony Black ORL 5.1 2.1 1.1
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.0 1.7 0.8
23 Malachi Flynn DET 4.2 1.3 1.0
24 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.7 1.4 0.7
25 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.0 1.7 0.6
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.7 0.7 0.4
27 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.