NBA games

LAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
89–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC1831182289
MIN3016222088

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIN
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 32 5 1
Norman Powell 27 24 3 0
Paul George S 34 15 4 1
Terance Mann S 19 6 4 1
James Harden S 34 4 5 10
Daniel Theis 29 4 13 1
Amir Coffey 25 2 4 0
Ivica Zubac S 19 2 2 1
Bones Hyland 14 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 27 5 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 18 9 8
Rudy Gobert S 40 12 16 2
Kyle Anderson 14 8 3 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 8 0 1
Monte Morris 11 6 1 0
Jaden McDaniels S 33 6 2 1
Naz Reid 21 3 11 2
Mike Conley S 28 0 7 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
4 Paul George LAC
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 Kyle Anderson MIN
7%
8 Daniel Theis LAC
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 4.9 5.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.0 7.5 3.4
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.3 5.5 3.9
4 James Harden LAC 21.3 5.6 6.7
5 Paul George LAC 18.5 4.4 3.9
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.7 12.1 1.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.3 5.5 1.6
8 Norman Powell LAC 12.8 2.6 1.5
9 Mike Conley MIN 12.0 3.1 5.3
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.3 3.5 1.8
11 Terance Mann LAC 10.2 4.5 2.0
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 9.8 8.1 1.2
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 3.0 3.1
14 Amir Coffey LAC 8.4 2.0 1.7
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.1 3.3 4.4
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 4.2 1.3
17 Xavier Moon LAC 5.7 2.4 2.2
18 Monte Morris MIN 5.5 2.1 2.1
19 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.3 5.1 1.2
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.0 1.4 1.4
21 Brandon Boston LAC 3.4 1.4 0.4
22 Bones Hyland LAC 3.0 1.2 1.3
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.5 0.5
24 Daishen Nix MIN 2.2 0.5 0.4
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.