NBA games

GS @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
88–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2216242688
BOS44383325140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BOS
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lester Quinones 33 17 5 0
Moses Moody S 19 11 4 0
Jerome Robinson 17 10 0 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 8 8 2
Draymond Green S 14 6 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 20 6 2 3
Klay Thompson S 12 6 2 1
Gary Payton II 22 6 4 1
Gui Santos 19 5 9 3
Dario Saric 13 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 22 29 3 3
Jayson Tatum S 25 27 3 5
Payton Pritchard 27 19 6 6
Derrick White S 20 14 3 8
Sam Hauser 20 12 5 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 19 8 4 2
Xavier Tillman 18 7 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 26 7 6 4
Al Horford S 21 7 4 4
Oshae Brissett 19 6 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
3 Stephen Curry GS
13%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Klay Thompson GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Dario Saric GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
40%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 8.3 6.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.7 6.6 4.5
3 Stephen Curry GS 20.1 4.4 6.3
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.2 5.8 3.5
5 Derrick White BOS 16.6 4.3 5.3
6 Klay Thompson GS 16.0 3.9 2.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.8 4.2 6.1
8 Draymond Green GS 11.0 8.0 5.2
9 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.5 5.2
10 Al Horford BOS 10.1 6.3 1.8
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.3 2.8 1.6
12 Xavier Tillman BOS 6.4 4.0 2.0
13 Moses Moody GS 6.1 2.9 0.9
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.1 3.0 1.0
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.9 1.1
16 Jaden Springer BOS 5.3 2.4 1.2
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.1 3.4 0.8
18 Lester Quinones GS 4.6 2.0 1.0
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.5 0.9
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.1 3.7 0.6
21 Dario Saric GS 3.5 2.2 1.7
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.3 1.5 0.9
23 Gui Santos GS 3.0 1.9 0.4
24 Kevon Looney GS 2.7 3.2 1.0
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.5 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.