NBA games

PHI @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI32243430120
DAL22292540116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DAL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 35 28 5 1
Tyrese Maxey S 39 24 2 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. 26 21 5 4
Paul Reed 28 13 7 3
Buddy Hield S 28 11 3 4
Kyle Lowry S 33 8 4 7
Mo Bamba S 14 8 5 1
Nicolas Batum 32 7 11 3
KJ Martin 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 38 11 10
Kyrie Irving S 38 28 5 4
Derrick Jones Jr. 26 21 7 0
P.J. Washington S 35 13 4 2
Josh Green S 20 7 6 1
Dereck Lively II S 18 4 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 15 2 0 1
Maxi Kleber 26 2 5 2
Dante Exum 8 1 0 0
Daniel Gafford 13 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 Mo Bamba PHI
7%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 Buddy Hield PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
42%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.9 8.3 10.8
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.3 4.6 4.6
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.2 4.9 6.2
4 Tobias Harris PHI 17.3 6.6 3.7
5 Buddy Hield PHI 17.0 3.6 6.0
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.8 5.5 1.7
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.5 5.7 1.7
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 11.7 3.5 2.0
9 Dante Exum DAL 10.9 2.8 3.9
10 Josh Green DAL 10.2 3.5 2.3
11 Paul Reed PHI 10.1 8.3 1.4
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.1 6.8 1.3
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.6 8.2 1.1
14 Cameron Payne PHI 9.5 2.2 3.2
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 9.1 4.1 2.0
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.5 2.9 0.8
17 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.1 3.4 4.0
18 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.6 3.7 1.8
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.4 1.5 1.0
20 KJ Martin PHI 6.3 3.9 1.2
21 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.7 3.0 1.1
22 Mo Bamba PHI 4.7 4.9 1.1
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.2 1.8 0.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 3.1 1.0
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.