NBA games

HOU @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
118–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU38163529118
PHX19253530109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHX
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 34 9 4
Fred VanVleet S 42 24 5 11
Alperen Sengun S 33 21 10 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 14 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 33 11 6 3
Amen Thompson 21 9 5 3
Cam Whitmore 10 4 4 1
Jeff Green 10 1 2 0
Jock Landale 11 0 2 1
Aaron Holiday 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 30 9 2
Devin Booker S 38 24 2 5
Royce O'Neale 27 20 10 2
Josh Okogie 17 7 3 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 17 7 10 5
Bradley Beal S 20 7 2 2
Bol Bol 11 5 5 0
Thaddeus Young 10 4 2 0
Drew Eubanks 14 2 2 1
Grayson Allen S 37 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Jalen Green makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.2 8.1 5.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.0 4.2 6.0
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.3 5.0 3.9
4 Bradley Beal PHX 19.3 3.9 5.5
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.3 8.6 4.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.8 10.2 2.1
7 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.2 3.6 1.4
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.1 11.0 4.4
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.9 3.8 5.8
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 3.9 2.1
11 Grayson Allen PHX 12.3 3.7 3.8
12 Amen Thompson HOU 11.6 9.3 2.7
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.9 5.3 2.7
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.5 2.1 2.1
15 Bol Bol PHX 8.1 5.2 0.8
16 David Roddy PHX 7.3 3.8 1.5
17 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.4 4.7 1.7
18 Jeff Green HOU 6.3 2.7 1.7
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 4.5 0.8
20 Josh Okogie PHX 4.9 2.3 1.1
21 Saben Lee PHX 3.7 1.8 1.1
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.6 1.9 0.6
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 3.3 0.9
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.5 1.0
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 0.9 0.4
26 Theo Maledon PHX 2.4 1.0 1.1
27 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.