NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
124–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27313135124
LAL33332325114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 35 10 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 25 10 4
Jamal Murray S 38 24 6 11
Aaron Gordon S 35 18 9 5
Justin Holiday 31 13 2 3
Peyton Watson 16 7 2 0
Christian Braun S 24 2 5 2
Zeke Nnaji 9 0 2 0
Reggie Jackson 11 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 26 4 9
Rui Hachimura S 37 23 3 2
Austin Reaves S 37 19 2 14
Anthony Davis S 39 17 11 2
D'Angelo Russell S 31 17 3 3
Jaxson Hayes 9 4 4 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 3 1 3
Cam Reddish 19 3 2 0
Taurean Prince 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
25%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.4 5.0 8.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.5 11.7 3.3
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.4 12.1 10.2
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.5 4.0 6.6
5 Jamal Murray DEN 20.4 4.4 6.5
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.1 7.1 2.6
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.3 6.6 3.9
8 Austin Reaves LAL 17.1 4.6 6.3
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.2 4.7 1.2
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.3 2.5 3.4
11 Taurean Prince LAL 7.9 3.1 1.7
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 7.8 1.8 3.8
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.8 3.6 1.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.8 3.9 1.3
15 Cam Reddish LAL 6.1 2.0 1.0
16 Max Christie LAL 6.0 2.5 1.2
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.3 1.9 1.1
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 4.0 0.7
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 3.4 0.8
20 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.6 1.0
21 Jay Huff DEN 2.8 1.3 0.7
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.4 0.6
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 1.0 0.9
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 3.0 0.3
25 Skylar Mays LAL 2.0 0.7 0.6
26 Harry Giles III LAL 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.