NBA games

POR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
107–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR2522143412107
MEM203127175100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MEM
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 45 30 7 7
Jabari Walker 31 18 12 2
Toumani Camara S 36 15 7 1
Ashton Hagans 33 13 5 8
Duop Reath S 24 12 6 1
Dalano Banton 13 10 3 0
Jerami Grant S 15 5 0 1
Matisse Thybulle 19 2 4 1
Kris Murray S 39 2 5 2
Moses Brown 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 37 21 8 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 38 21 8 2
GG Jackson 31 17 6 1
Ziaire Williams S 34 9 6 0
Lamar Stevens S 17 7 3 0
Matt Hurt 18 7 1 1
Jake LaRavia 14 6 2 0
Luke Kennard 28 5 2 5
Jordan Goodwin S 30 4 5 8
John Konchar 18 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Santi Aldama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Santi Aldama makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
5 Jordan Goodwin MEM
8%
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
7 Duop Reath POR
7%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.9 5.1 3.5
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.3 4.0 4.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.8 3.9 5.6
4 GG Jackson MEM 16.1 4.5 1.4
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.1 5.5 6.4
6 Luke Kennard MEM 12.0 2.5 3.0
7 Santi Aldama MEM 11.0 4.8 2.9
8 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.8 3.8 2.3
9 Toumani Camara POR 9.9 5.5 1.6
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.8 3.8 1.6
11 Jabari Walker POR 8.9 6.2 1.1
12 Lamar Stevens MEM 8.9 4.5 1.2
13 Duop Reath POR 7.3 3.3 0.8
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.1 2.8 1.8
15 John Konchar MEM 6.9 4.9 2.0
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.6 2.4 1.8
17 Kris Murray POR 6.5 3.7 1.8
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.1 2.5 1.2
19 Jordan Goodwin MEM 5.8 2.5 1.8
20 Ashton Hagans POR 5.4 2.5 2.6
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.4 2.3 1.1
22 Matt Hurt MEM 4.2 1.8 0.7
23 Yuta Watanabe MEM 3.4 1.6 0.7
24 Moses Brown POR 3.3 4.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.