NBA games

UTAH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
120–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH34282830120
MIA30283236126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIA
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 43 31 4 4
Lauri Markkanen S 41 25 4 6
John Collins S 33 18 6 3
Collin Sexton S 31 18 1 5
Taylor Hendricks S 29 8 13 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 20 7 8 3
Omer Yurtseven 15 7 5 0
Brice Sensabaugh 13 6 0 0
Kris Dunn 10 0 1 2
Luka Samanic 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 37 3 7
Bam Adebayo S 34 23 7 3
Caleb Martin 23 18 5 4
Terry Rozier S 33 14 2 8
Duncan Robinson S 34 12 5 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 12 4 1
Nikola Jovic S 19 8 3 4
Haywood Highsmith 19 2 1 0
Orlando Robinson 14 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 14-foot two point shot (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 John Collins UTAH
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
20%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.7 7.2 6.4
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.5 9.3 4.8
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.3 3.0 5.5
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.3 6.5 2.4
5 Tyler Herro MIA 19.2 4.4 5.3
6 Terry Rozier MIA 17.4 5.0 6.0
7 Keyonte George UTAH 16.0 3.4 5.6
8 John Collins UTAH 15.4 10.2 2.1
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.2 2.6 3.6
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.2 4.4 3.1
11 Caleb Martin MIA 11.5 4.4 2.0
12 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.3 2.7 2.8
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 7.1 1.5 2.2
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.2 2.8 1.3
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.0 2.7 1.0
16 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.9 4.5 0.9
17 Jamal Cain MIA 4.8 2.0 0.7
18 Delon Wright MIA 4.2 1.7 1.7
19 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.5 1.4 0.6
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.9 1.5 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.8 1.3 0.8
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.6 1.3 0.5
23 Cole Swider MIA 2.6 0.7 0.7
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.5 1.5 0.3
25 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.