NBA games

ATL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
102–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28341822102
BKN21393024114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BKN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 35 23 3 2
Dejounte Murray S 35 20 6 11
De'Andre Hunter 29 15 2 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 35 13 6 1
Clint Capela S 24 11 10 2
Bruno Fernando 19 10 4 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 7 9 1
Kobe Bufkin 14 3 2 3
Garrison Mathews 13 0 0 0
Trent Forrest 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 39 38 5 2
Cameron Johnson S 31 23 5 1
Dennis Schroder S 34 14 2 8
Nic Claxton S 34 12 13 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 35 11 4 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 6 5 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 21 3 6 6
Jalen Wilson 16 3 4 1
Lonnie Walker IV 11 2 1 0
Trendon Watford 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
9 Dennis Schroder BKN
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
37%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 6.4 7.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 21.4 4.0 4.3
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.2 4.1 4.1
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.9 9.7 3.4
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.2 4.0 1.6
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.9 4.2 3.4
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.3 5.9 1.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.6 7.2 1.2
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.6 4.1 2.7
10 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.7 3.2 4.9
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.9 8.2 1.9
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.9 9.9 1.0
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.7 4.1 1.8
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.0 5.8 1.6
15 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.6 2.2 1.3
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.8 2.6 3.5
17 Trendon Watford BKN 6.6 2.5 0.9
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.4 2.7 1.6
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.6 4.1 0.9
20 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.3 2.0 1.3
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.8 0.7
22 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 4.2 2.0 0.8
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.5 2.0 0.6
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.8 1.3 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.