NBA games

WSH @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
115–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30342130115
LAC33463130140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 29 32 7 1
Jordan Poole 21 16 4 4
Deni Avdija S 26 14 5 5
Marvin Bagley III S 28 10 10 0
Corey Kispert 23 9 2 0
Jared Butler 15 8 2 7
Landry Shamet S 17 8 1 0
Eugene Omoruyi 13 8 0 0
Jules Bernard 7 4 1 0
Johnny Davis 24 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 25 28 4 8
Kawhi Leonard S 29 27 9 4
Paul George S 30 22 6 3
Terance Mann S 22 12 3 0
Amir Coffey 22 10 0 3
Daniel Theis S 20 9 8 1
Norman Powell 22 9 3 4
Brandon Boston 5 7 0 0
Russell Westbrook 10 6 0 1
Mason Plumlee 20 4 10 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Paul George makes driving layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
3 Paul George LAC
11%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
5 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
6 Daniel Theis LAC
8%
7 Terance Mann LAC
7%
8 James Harden LAC
7%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.0 6.0 4.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.7 6.7 3.4
3 James Harden LAC 22.4 6.2 7.6
4 Deni Avdija WSH 21.6 8.9 3.8
5 Paul George LAC 20.0 4.6 4.4
6 Jordan Poole WSH 19.7 3.8 5.3
7 Corey Kispert WSH 17.1 4.0 3.6
8 Norman Powell LAC 14.6 2.9 1.6
9 Tyus Jones WSH 14.4 2.6 10.4
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.3 8.0 1.8
11 Terance Mann LAC 11.0 4.8 2.3
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.3 3.3 3.5
13 Amir Coffey LAC 9.0 2.6 1.7
14 Daniel Theis LAC 6.7 4.1 1.6
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.7 5.7 1.5
16 Landry Shamet WSH 6.4 2.1 1.2
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.7 3.1 0.8
18 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.9 3.1 0.7
19 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.8 2.7 1.0
20 Jared Butler WSH 3.8 0.9 1.4
21 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.7 2.7 0.7
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.3 2.0 0.8
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.1 1.2 0.4
24 Jules Bernard WSH 2.9 1.3 0.7
25 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.7 0.7
26 Bones Hyland LAC 2.5 0.6 1.4
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.8 0.5
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.8 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.