NBA games

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33252431113
CHI2420282597

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 46 16 6
Damian Lillard S 33 16 3 7
Patrick Beverley 18 14 4 2
Brook Lopez S 29 12 3 1
Bobby Portis 26 11 9 1
AJ Green 9 7 2 1
Malik Beasley S 28 4 6 2
Jae Crowder S 24 3 3 0
Pat Connaughton 25 0 1 1
MarJon Beauchamp 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 38 22 3 2
Nikola Vucevic S 34 17 9 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 15 5 6
DeMar DeRozan S 33 12 4 9
Alex Caruso S 26 11 4 2
Andre Drummond 24 9 10 0
Onuralp Bitim 16 6 4 1
Terry Taylor 12 4 3 0
Dalen Terry 2 1 1 0
Julian Phillips 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
15%
2 Coby White CHI
11%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Andre Drummond CHI
9%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
29%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.1 11.0 6.3
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.0 4.8 4.8
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.5 4.8 6.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.9 10.8 3.2
5 Coby White CHI 21.2 4.9 6.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.3 3.8 4.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.1 6.8 2.5
8 Malik Beasley MIL 13.8 3.1 1.8
9 Andre Drummond CHI 11.5 10.2 1.0
10 Brook Lopez MIL 11.3 5.0 1.9
11 Alex Caruso CHI 9.6 4.6 3.3
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.0 4.1 3.0
13 Jae Crowder MIL 7.2 4.3 1.9
14 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.5 2.7 2.5
15 AJ Green MIL 5.9 1.9 0.8
16 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.4 2.0 1.4
17 Torrey Craig CHI 4.8 3.0 0.9
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.4 1.0
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.3 1.5 0.6
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.8 0.6
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 1.9 1.3
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 1.7 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.2 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.