IND @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
102–129
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 26 | 30 | 16 | 30 | 102 |
| NO | 48 | 29 | 31 | 21 | 129 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND
away
home
NO
42%
58%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 18 | 13 | 11 | 1 |
| Pascal Siakam S | 20 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| Myles Turner S | 19 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Nembhard S | 30 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| Aaron Nesmith S | 21 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalen Smith | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| T.J. McConnell | 17 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Jarace Walker | 27 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Obi Toppin | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Pascal Siakam ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Pascal Siakam
IND
13%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
11%
3
Myles Turner
IND
10%
4
Brandon Ingram
NO
10%
5
Aaron Nesmith
IND
9%
6
Herbert Jones
NO
8%
7
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
8%
8
CJ McCollum
NO
8%
9
Bennedict Mathurin
IND
8%
10
Andrew Nembhard
IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Williamson | NO | 24.8 | 6.3 | 6.6 |
| 2 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 24.6 | 5.4 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Pascal Siakam | IND | 21.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 18.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Tyrese Haliburton | IND | 18.3 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
| 6 | Myles Turner | IND | 17.5 | 7.6 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND | 16.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Herbert Jones | NO | 15.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| 9 | Aaron Nesmith | IND | 13.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 10 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 12.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| 11 | Jalen Smith | IND | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| 12 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | 10.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| 13 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 10.1 | 8.1 | 1.5 |
| 14 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 9.5 | 3.1 | 5.3 |
| 15 | Obi Toppin | IND | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Naji Marshall | NO | 6.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 17 | Matt Ryan | NO | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 18 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| 19 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| 20 | Isaiah Jackson | IND | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| 21 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 22 | Jarace Walker | IND | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 23 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 24 | James Johnson | IND | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 25 | Oscar Tshiebwe | IND | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 26 | Cody Zeller | NO | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 27 | Kendall Brown | IND | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.