NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
124–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC303031249124
MIN223723335120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 33 39 4 4
Domantas Sabonis S 41 21 15 8
Keegan Murray S 43 17 5 1
Davion Mitchell 25 16 2 2
Harrison Barnes S 41 14 2 0
Kevin Huerter S 33 8 6 4
Alex Len 5 4 2 1
Trey Lyles 19 3 5 2
Keon Ellis S 19 2 2 7
Chris Duarte 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 45 26 7 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 19 6 5
Naz Reid 36 18 7 3
Rudy Gobert S 42 16 16 1
Mike Conley S 36 14 3 8
Anthony Edwards S 19 11 2 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 7 2 3
Monte Morris 15 5 0 2
Jordan McLaughlin 12 4 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Davion Mitchell SAC
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
41%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.5 5.7 5.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.7 7.8 2.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 13.9 8.9
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.0 4.0 4.8
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.6 11.7 1.9
6 Keegan Murray SAC 12.6 4.6 1.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 5.2 1.5
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.4 3.1 1.1
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.3 3.2 1.9
10 Mike Conley MIN 11.2 3.1 5.6
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.4 3.3 1.8
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 3.2 2.8
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 3.7 1.0
14 Monte Morris MIN 5.9 2.2 2.2
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.9 1.3 1.3
16 Chris Duarte SAC 4.2 1.9 0.7
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.5 1.5 1.5
18 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.4 0.6
19 Keon Ellis SAC 2.6 1.4 0.6
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 1.4 0.5
21 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.7 0.4
22 JaVale McGee SAC 2.2 2.1 0.2
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.2 0.5 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.