NBA games

POR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
122–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR17344031122
MEM2124272092

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MEM
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 20 19 7 3
Jabari Walker 22 19 10 2
Duop Reath S 23 18 5 1
Kris Murray S 24 14 2 2
Matisse Thybulle 26 13 3 2
Jerami Grant S 33 10 2 5
Moses Brown 9 7 1 0
Anfernee Simons S 26 7 5 8
Ashton Hagans 24 6 2 5
Rayan Rupert 7 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jake LaRavia 26 21 2 2
Lamar Stevens 21 19 1 2
GG Jackson 23 11 1 0
Jordan Goodwin S 34 10 3 2
Ziaire Williams S 26 9 5 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 29 8 2 5
Santi Aldama S 28 6 8 1
Trey Jemison III S 30 5 6 1
Matt Hurt 7 3 1 0
Yuta Watanabe 17 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Goodwin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot three point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
18%
2 Jerami Grant POR
11%
3 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
5 Trey Jemison III MEM
8%
6 Jordan Goodwin MEM
8%
7 Kris Murray POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 Moses Brown POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 24.1 4.3 4.1
2 Anfernee Simons POR 22.2 3.5 5.5
3 GG Jackson MEM 15.9 4.5 1.5
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 15.2 5.8 6.7
5 Luke Kennard MEM 12.1 2.6 3.1
6 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.6 3.6 2.2
7 Toumani Camara POR 10.0 5.2 1.7
8 Santi Aldama MEM 9.9 4.6 3.1
9 Lamar Stevens MEM 8.1 4.3 1.1
10 Jabari Walker POR 7.7 5.7 1.1
11 John Konchar MEM 6.9 4.9 2.1
12 Kris Murray POR 6.1 3.6 1.5
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.1 2.3 1.7
14 Duop Reath POR 6.0 3.0 0.7
15 Dalano Banton POR 5.5 2.0 1.7
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.2 2.3 1.1
17 Ashton Hagans POR 4.8 2.4 2.6
18 Jordan Goodwin MEM 4.6 2.1 1.7
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 2.1 1.0
20 Trey Jemison III MEM 4.1 3.2 0.6
21 Matt Hurt MEM 3.6 1.4 0.6
22 Yuta Watanabe MEM 3.3 1.5 0.7
23 Moses Brown POR 3.0 4.7 0.5
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.7 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.