NBA games

GS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
120–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28333227120
TOR31331922105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home TOR
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 25 6 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 27 24 6 2
Moses Moody S 32 17 5 1
Klay Thompson S 30 14 6 1
Chris Paul 24 13 4 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 16 9 4 0
Draymond Green S 28 6 13 5
Lester Quinones 23 6 4 1
Gary Payton II 14 4 4 1
Dario Saric 6 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 31 23 2 4
Kelly Olynyk 28 16 10 3
Gradey Dick 27 12 2 3
Immanuel Quickley S 36 12 5 11
Scottie Barnes S 16 10 6 3
Jakob Poeltl S 25 10 14 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 9 3 2
D.J. Carton 6 5 0 2
Bruce Brown 23 4 2 1
Ochai Agbaji 10 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
34%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
7%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
6%
8 Draymond Green GS
6%
9 Jordan Nwora TOR
5%
10 Moses Moody GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
43%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.3 4.8 7.0
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.7 5.9 5.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.5 9.9 7.6
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 4.4 5.0
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.0 5.6 3.8
6 Klay Thompson GS 17.5 4.1 2.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.6 10.4 2.7
8 Draymond Green GS 12.0 8.0 5.6
9 Chris Paul GS 10.9 3.7 5.8
10 Gradey Dick TOR 10.8 2.6 1.4
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.5 2.9 1.9
12 Bruce Brown TOR 9.3 3.1 2.3
13 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.2 3.8 3.2
14 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.9 1.0
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.6 2.9 1.2
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 3.5 1.0
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.2 1.8 1.2
18 Lester Quinones GS 4.9 2.2 1.5
19 Dario Saric GS 4.8 2.8 2.2
20 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.5 2.0 0.8
21 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.4 2.1 1.1
22 Chris Boucher TOR 4.0 3.6 0.5
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.2 3.4 1.0
24 Jerome Robinson GS 2.2 0.8 0.5
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.1 0.9 0.5
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.