NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
110–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32273120110
BOS38283636138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 37 12 11
Kyrie Irving S 37 19 4 2
P.J. Washington S 35 17 7 0
Dereck Lively II S 23 15 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 20 10 5 0
Dante Exum 15 4 2 1
Josh Green S 28 2 3 2
Jaden Hardy 4 2 0 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 4 2 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 7 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 32 8 3
Jaylen Brown S 31 25 7 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 24 6 2
Derrick White S 32 13 7 8
Al Horford 28 12 8 3
Jrue Holiday S 27 11 2 7
Payton Pritchard 16 10 2 1
Xavier Tillman 15 6 1 2
Oshae Brissett 4 3 0 0
Jaden Springer 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Josh Green DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
20%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.7 10.0 10.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 8.3 6.7
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.3 4.8 5.1
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 6.6 4.1
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.0 7.6 2.4
6 Derrick White BOS 15.5 4.2 5.2
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.9 4.6 5.7
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.0 5.6 1.8
9 Dante Exum DAL 11.8 3.0 3.7
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.0 8.4 1.2
11 Josh Green DAL 10.7 3.5 2.2
12 Al Horford BOS 9.8 6.2 1.8
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 9.5 3.1 1.8
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 6.3 1.1
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 8.3 3.8 1.7
16 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.7 2.6 1.6
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 6.6 4.0 1.7
18 Sam Hauser BOS 6.5 2.8 0.9
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 1.1 0.8
20 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.3 2.9 1.0
21 Luke Kornet BOS 4.6 3.9 0.8
22 Jaden Springer BOS 4.3 2.3 1.3
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.1 0.9 0.5
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 1.9 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.4 1.3 0.4
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.4 1.4 0.9
27 Dwight Powell DAL 1.8 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.