NBA games

CHA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27362130114
PHI32263033121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHI
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 39 27 11 2
Nick Richards S 30 19 4 1
Davis Bertans 20 14 1 2
Vasilije Micic 28 13 0 7
Grant Williams 27 13 6 2
Cody Martin S 32 12 4 2
Tre Mann S 32 9 3 6
Seth Curry S 23 5 2 2
Bryce McGowens 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 33 6 5
Tobias Harris S 40 31 12 4
Kyle Lowry S 36 15 6 10
Buddy Hield S 32 13 3 6
Paul Reed 24 11 8 3
Nicolas Batum 27 8 4 2
Cameron Payne 17 5 0 7
Ricky Council IV 5 3 1 0
Mo Bamba S 19 2 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
7 Paul Reed PHI
9%
8 Cody Martin CHA
7%
9 Tre Mann CHA
6%
10 Buddy Hield PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 4.6 6.2
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.5 7.8 4.1
3 Brandon Miller CHA 19.1 4.8 2.9
4 Tobias Harris PHI 17.1 6.4 3.5
5 Buddy Hield PHI 16.1 3.4 5.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.6 5.5 1.8
7 Grant Williams CHA 13.3 4.8 2.1
8 Nick Richards CHA 12.5 9.4 1.2
9 Tre Mann CHA 11.5 4.7 4.4
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.8 4.9 4.8
11 Paul Reed PHI 9.6 8.1 1.3
12 Cameron Payne PHI 9.2 2.3 2.5
13 Seth Curry CHA 7.9 2.4 1.5
14 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.5 2.8 0.8
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.3 2.0 5.0
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.7 3.2 3.4
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.4 2.9 1.2
18 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.4 3.7 1.8
19 KJ Martin PHI 6.4 4.0 1.2
20 Davis Bertans CHA 4.7 1.3 0.7
21 Mo Bamba PHI 4.5 4.5 1.1
22 JT Thor CHA 2.7 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.