NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32312819110
DET24242230100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 36 29 5 4
Evan Mobley S 35 22 17 7
Max Strus S 35 14 4 4
Sam Merrill 25 12 3 1
Isaac Okoro S 25 12 0 4
Jarrett Allen S 35 9 15 2
Dean Wade 19 6 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 11 4 3 0
Georges Niang 19 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 21 3 10
Jaden Ivey S 31 18 3 4
Isaiah Stewart S 33 16 9 3
Ausar Thompson S 37 15 7 3
Jalen Duren S 31 14 10 2
Simone Fontecchio 25 7 2 1
James Wiseman 12 4 6 0
Evan Fournier 15 3 2 1
Quentin Grimes 14 2 0 0
Malachi Flynn 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaac Okoro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Isaac Okoro makes two point shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.7 5.0 5.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.5 5.1 7.2
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.2 3.2 4.3
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.7 10.2 2.5
5 Darius Garland CLE 18.0 2.3 7.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 10.2 2.6
7 Jalen Duren DET 15.2 11.7 2.9
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.4 6.5 2.2
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 6.0 2.1
10 Max Strus CLE 11.9 3.7 4.6
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 11.7 3.8 1.9
12 Caris LeVert CLE 11.2 4.8 6.0
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.1 3.2 2.3
14 Georges Niang CLE 7.9 2.9 1.0
15 Quentin Grimes DET 7.5 3.2 1.6
16 Evan Fournier DET 6.4 2.1 1.0
17 James Wiseman DET 5.2 3.8 0.9
18 Dean Wade CLE 4.3 2.6 0.7
19 Malachi Flynn DET 4.1 1.4 1.0
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.9 1.0 1.0
21 Shake Milton DET 3.5 1.9 1.0
22 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.8 1.5 0.8
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.7 1.3 0.8
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.1 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.