NBA games

WSH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
131–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
WSH343526315131
LAL313929278134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 38 34 3 7
Marvin Bagley III S 34 23 4 1
Kyle Kuzma S 37 20 10 4
Corey Kispert 27 20 6 6
Deni Avdija S 43 15 15 5
Tyus Jones S 37 8 1 11
Richaun Holmes 14 7 3 0
Landry Shamet S 16 4 1 1
Johnny Davis 17 0 2 0
Jules Bernard 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 41 40 15 4
LeBron James S 39 31 4 9
D'Angelo Russell S 44 22 6 5
Austin Reaves S 39 12 6 4
Spencer Dinwiddie 26 10 0 3
Rui Hachimura S 35 8 7 1
Jaxson Hayes 11 6 5 0
Max Christie 9 3 0 1
Taurean Prince 17 2 2 3
Cam Reddish 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
7%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.3 6.0 8.6
2 Anthony Davis LAL 26.0 13.2 4.0
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.8 6.2 3.3
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.2 4.2 8.0
5 Deni Avdija WSH 20.6 8.2 3.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 18.8 4.9 6.9
7 Corey Kispert WSH 17.8 4.0 3.2
8 Tyus Jones WSH 15.7 2.7 10.3
9 Jordan Poole WSH 15.5 3.9 5.0
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.2 4.6 1.4
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.4 8.3 1.7
12 Taurean Prince LAL 10.8 3.4 1.8
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.0 2.2 4.5
14 Landry Shamet WSH 7.1 2.3 1.3
15 Cam Reddish LAL 6.8 2.6 1.3
16 Isaiah Livers WSH 6.5 2.5 1.2
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.0 3.3 0.9
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.3 0.9
19 Max Christie LAL 5.5 2.5 1.0
20 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.6 3.2 0.8
21 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.2 1.5
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.4 3.0 1.1
23 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.7 0.7
24 Skylar Mays LAL 2.5 1.0 0.7
25 Dylan Windler LAL 2.2 0.8 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 0.9 0.5
27 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.