NBA games

MIA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
97–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2031192797
DEN36202720103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DEN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 22 8 3
Jimmy Butler III S 40 21 7 3
Terry Rozier S 33 19 5 4
Caleb Martin 28 13 9 1
Duncan Robinson S 36 12 3 3
Nikola Jovic S 25 7 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 3 4 5
Delon Wright 3 0 0 0
Orlando Robinson 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 30 11 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 18 2 2
Nikola Jokic S 38 18 11 7
Aaron Gordon S 37 16 9 3
Jamal Murray S 14 6 1 3
Reggie Jackson 29 6 2 2
Justin Holiday 8 6 2 1
Christian Braun 20 2 2 1
Zeke Nnaji 6 1 1 0
Peyton Watson 15 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 12-foot two point shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.3 11.2 9.8
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.6 6.7 6.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.4 6.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.7 9.5 4.3
5 Tyler Herro MIA 17.9 4.5 5.0
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.1 6.5 2.3
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.7 5.9 3.7
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.6 4.6 5.4
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.6 2.3 3.3
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.6 4.4 2.4
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.0 3.8 1.8
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.9 2.6 2.0
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.8 2.1 3.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 7.4 4.0 1.2
15 Christian Braun DEN 6.4 3.4 1.2
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.9 2.7 0.8
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.5 2.8 1.0
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.8 1.0
19 Delon Wright MIA 4.0 1.5 1.5
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 2.9 0.8
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.8 1.5 0.9
22 Alondes Williams MIA 3.4 1.5 0.7
23 Jay Huff DEN 2.6 1.3 0.6
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.9 0.7
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.2 1.2 0.3
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.8 2.6 0.2
28 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.