NBA games

HOU @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU17362230105
PHX33312224110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHX
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 39 34 5 2
Fred VanVleet S 39 21 6 5
Cam Whitmore 27 14 8 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 11 16 0
Jock Landale 10 8 6 0
Alperen Sengun S 23 8 3 4
Dillon Brooks S 31 6 8 1
Jeff Green 12 3 1 0
Amen Thompson 10 0 4 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 35 7 3
Kevin Durant S 40 24 7 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 16 13 2
Royce O'Neale S 37 11 6 7
Bol Bol 26 7 4 0
Grayson Allen S 36 6 4 0
Saben Lee 8 4 1 2
Drew Eubanks 16 4 7 0
Josh Okogie 11 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 18-foot jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
3 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.8 7.9 5.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.4 4.1 6.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.4 9.6 4.5
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.6 5.1 4.2
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.0 11.4 4.8
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.7 9.6 2.1
7 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.6 3.5 1.4
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.5 3.8 5.6
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.1 3.6 2.2
10 Amen Thompson HOU 12.9 9.8 2.9
11 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 3.6 4.3
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 4.5 2.1
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.2 2.2 2.2
14 David Roddy PHX 7.5 3.8 1.6
15 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.9 4.9 1.8
16 Bol Bol PHX 6.7 5.0 0.8
17 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.8 1.7
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.4 4.0 0.6
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.0 1.8 0.9
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.9 2.0 0.7
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 2.8 1.1
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.4 3.1 0.9
23 Saben Lee PHX 3.2 1.5 0.9
24 Theo Maledon PHX 2.8 1.0 1.2
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.5 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.