NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37273222118
SA37322934132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 31 6 3
Jalen Williams S 33 26 6 3
Chet Holmgren S 33 23 7 5
Isaiah Joe 23 15 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 33 8 4 0
Jaylin Williams 12 6 2 0
Aaron Wiggins 12 4 3 1
Cason Wallace 15 3 3 3
Josh Giddey S 18 2 2 2
Kenrich Williams 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 38 28 3 9
Victor Wembanyama S 32 28 13 7
Jeremy Sochan S 32 21 10 0
Tre Jones S 33 17 6 8
Zach Collins 16 13 5 5
Keldon Johnson 31 10 2 4
Malaki Branham 19 6 2 2
Julian Champagnie S 19 6 2 1
Cedi Osman 15 3 0 3
Blake Wesley 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
16%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Tre Jones SA
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.1 5.4 7.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.1 10.4 5.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.4 4.3 5.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 22.8 4.9 5.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.6 8.3 3.0
6 Keldon Johnson SA 11.8 4.0 1.9
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.7 3.6 1.8
8 Josh Giddey OKC 11.6 5.7 3.8
9 Tre Jones SA 11.3 3.7 6.0
10 Gordon Hayward OKC 10.5 4.2 3.4
11 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.0 5.6 2.1
12 Zach Collins SA 8.6 4.5 2.4
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.4 2.2 1.6
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.2 2.9 1.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 2.6 1.3
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.2 1.3
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.1 3.7 1.7
18 Blake Wesley SA 5.8 1.7 3.0
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 3.7 1.6
20 Cedi Osman SA 5.6 2.2 1.4
21 Bismack Biyombo OKC 5.3 5.9 1.2
22 Dominick Barlow SA 5.3 4.7 1.2
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 2.5 1.0
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.8 1.4 0.5
25 Devonte' Graham SA 2.4 1.1 0.8
26 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.4 1.8 0.6
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.