NBA games

GS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
110–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31242530110
NY1927242999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NY
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 31 11 1
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 25 8 2
Klay Thompson 27 16 5 0
Chris Paul 26 11 4 6
Moses Moody S 26 8 4 1
Draymond Green S 27 7 10 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 11 6 1 1
Kevon Looney 10 4 2 1
Brandin Podziemski S 32 2 3 4
Dario Saric 11 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 27 5 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 16 7 2
Josh Hart S 47 14 18 7
Miles McBride 22 14 2 1
Jericho Sims 22 10 5 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 6 6 2
Alec Burks 11 5 2 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 18 4 3 1
Precious Achiuwa S 26 3 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
36%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
7%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
5 Josh Hart NY
6%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
5%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
5%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
5%
9 Jericho Sims NY
5%
10 Draymond Green GS
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
69%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
24%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.5 3.5 7.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.8 4.2 5.8
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 21.2 4.1 3.7
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.0 5.2 3.8
5 Klay Thompson GS 16.2 3.9 2.2
6 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 15.8 3.3 2.0
7 Josh Hart NY 15.7 8.7 5.4
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 13.2 10.0 2.0
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.6 5.7 5.0
10 Draymond Green GS 11.0 7.3 5.1
11 Chris Paul GS 10.5 3.7 5.8
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.5 8.3 2.3
13 Miles McBride NY 9.5 2.6 1.9
14 Alec Burks NY 9.4 2.7 1.4
15 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.4 0.8
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.9 1.1
17 Jericho Sims NY 5.6 5.6 1.3
18 Lester Quinones GS 5.4 2.1 1.6
19 Dario Saric GS 4.8 2.6 1.9
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.6 3.5 0.8
21 Jacob Toppin NY 3.2 1.7 0.6
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.0 3.5 0.9
23 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.6 1.1 0.7
24 Jerome Robinson GS 2.3 0.9 0.5
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.3 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.