NBA games

ATL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
97–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL1634252297
BKN34223830124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BKN
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 32 28 6 5
Jalen Johnson S 33 14 5 0
Kobe Bufkin 19 12 3 3
De'Andre Hunter 26 12 0 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 32 11 3 3
Clint Capela S 21 7 6 1
Saddiq Bey S 30 6 5 3
Wesley Matthews 14 5 5 0
Bruno Fernando 18 2 3 1
Trent Forrest 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 30 29 1 4
Dennis Schroder S 27 23 8 7
Mikal Bridges S 34 15 7 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 12 8 4
Lonnie Walker IV 16 11 2 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 21 10 0 5
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 7 3 1
Jalen Wilson 25 6 5 2
Nic Claxton S 28 5 8 2
Keita Bates-Diop 6 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Dennis Schroder BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
35%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.5 6.2 7.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 21.6 4.0 4.4
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.2 4.0 4.0
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.4 10.2 4.3
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.0 4.2 3.7
6 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.3 5.7 1.5
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.0 4.1 1.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.7 7.3 1.3
9 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.7 3.1 4.4
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.7 8.1 1.9
11 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.6 4.1 2.4
12 Clint Capela ATL 10.8 10.5 0.9
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.5 4.2 2.4
14 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.2 2.4 1.9
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.8 6.1 1.5
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.1 3.4 3.6
17 Trendon Watford BKN 6.4 2.3 0.9
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.2 2.5 1.6
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.6 4.2 0.9
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.7 0.6
21 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 4.1 2.0 0.8
22 Kobe Bufkin ATL 3.9 1.8 1.3
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.2 1.4 0.4
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.2 1.1 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.