NBA games

UTAH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
107–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21303125107
ORL29242735115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ORL
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 36 19 10 1
Collin Sexton S 30 19 3 4
Keyonte George S 31 19 3 9
Lauri Markkanen S 34 18 3 0
Taylor Hendricks S 27 10 7 1
Luka Samanic 12 8 4 0
Kris Dunn 22 7 1 2
Jordan Clarkson 36 5 5 7
Brice Sensabaugh 14 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 29 9 6
Jalen Suggs S 29 15 2 2
Franz Wagner S 34 14 3 6
Moritz Wagner 26 14 10 1
Gary Harris S 24 13 4 1
Cole Anthony 24 9 7 4
Markelle Fultz 18 7 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 6 5 1
Joe Ingles 14 5 0 2
Caleb Houstan 14 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Gary Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
9 Gary Harris ORL
7%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
36%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 24.9 5.2 5.0
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.4 6.0 6.7
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.3 2.8 6.0
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.6 7.0 2.8
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.3 3.1 5.7
6 Keyonte George UTAH 14.9 3.3 5.1
7 John Collins UTAH 14.7 9.8 2.1
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.0 5.8 2.1
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.4 3.4 3.8
10 Cole Anthony ORL 10.5 3.5 2.5
11 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.9 4.2 3.3
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.5 4.1 1.3
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 7.6 1.7 2.3
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.2 2.1 1.7
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.0 2.8 3.0
16 Anthony Black ORL 6.3 2.4 1.4
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.8 1.7 2.6
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.6 3.7 0.7
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.2 1.6 0.9
20 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.7 1.3 0.6
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.0 2.1 0.9
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.8 1.1 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 2.4 0.5 0.5
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.0 1.7 0.4
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.9 0.8 0.5
27 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.9 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.