NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35352219111
CHA2526232599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 24 10 5
Malik Beasley S 28 19 2 0
Damian Lillard S 34 17 6 2
Bobby Portis 28 14 10 4
Pat Connaughton 24 11 1 1
Brook Lopez S 25 11 3 4
Patrick Beverley 24 9 8 3
Jae Crowder S 23 4 2 1
Danilo Gallinari 12 2 1 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 40 21 7 1
Grant Williams 30 17 5 3
Miles Bridges S 39 15 10 3
Seth Curry 16 13 2 1
Nick Richards S 27 9 8 0
Tre Mann S 29 9 7 4
Davis Bertans 15 8 0 0
Cody Martin S 29 5 2 5
Vasilije Micic 15 2 1 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
5 Nick Richards CHA
11%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Cody Martin CHA
8%
8 Tre Mann CHA
7%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
9%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.8 10.8 6.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.8 7.1
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.0 6.9 4.1
4 Brandon Miller CHA 18.8 4.4 3.4
5 Bobby Portis MIL 15.7 6.9 2.1
6 Malik Beasley MIL 12.1 3.3 2.1
7 Grant Williams CHA 12.0 4.8 1.8
8 Nick Richards CHA 11.6 9.1 1.1
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.3 5.3 1.9
10 Tre Mann CHA 10.4 4.2 3.8
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.7 4.8 4.6
12 Jae Crowder MIL 7.7 4.4 2.1
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.3 4.3 3.0
14 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.2 1.9 4.6
15 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.6 2.6 3.2
16 Seth Curry CHA 6.6 2.0 1.4
17 AJ Green MIL 6.4 1.8 0.8
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.4 2.8 1.2
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.4 2.1 1.4
20 Davis Bertans CHA 4.5 1.3 0.7
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.5 0.9 1.1
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.0 1.8 0.7
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.0 1.7 0.7
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 1.5 0.6
25 JT Thor CHA 2.6 1.5 0.6
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.0 0.6
27 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.