NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29232539116
LAC30363016112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 34 6 8
Anthony Davis S 36 20 12 2
D'Angelo Russell S 34 18 2 6
Rui Hachimura S 29 17 2 0
Austin Reaves S 36 13 8 5
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 7 2 6
Cam Reddish 20 5 3 0
Taurean Prince 17 2 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 11 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 26 7 6
James Harden S 40 23 3 9
Terance Mann S 30 16 6 2
Norman Powell 30 14 4 2
Daniel Theis S 31 9 5 2
Mason Plumlee 16 8 4 2
Amir Coffey S 25 8 3 3
Russell Westbrook 17 8 2 3
P.J. Tucker 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"James Harden makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
12%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
8 Norman Powell LAC
9%
9 Terance Mann LAC
9%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.6 5.7 8.6
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.9 12.2 4.2
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.9 5.3 4.0
4 James Harden LAC 20.4 5.9 7.4
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.9 4.0 7.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.7 4.2 6.6
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.3 4.8 1.4
8 Norman Powell LAC 14.0 3.1 1.7
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.6 3.4 3.9
10 Terance Mann LAC 10.4 4.1 2.1
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.3 3.5 1.7
12 Amir Coffey LAC 9.2 2.5 1.6
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 7.7 1.9 4.5
14 Xavier Moon LAC 6.5 2.6 2.5
15 Cam Reddish LAL 6.4 2.1 1.2
16 Daniel Theis LAC 5.8 3.7 1.4
17 Max Christie LAL 5.6 2.4 1.1
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.5 5.6 1.1
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.4 4.3 0.9
20 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.5 2.3 0.8
21 Brandon Boston LAC 3.4 1.3 0.6
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.3 1.7 0.8
23 Skylar Mays LAL 2.6 1.0 0.8
24 Bones Hyland LAC 2.4 0.5 0.8
25 Dylan Windler LAL 2.3 0.8 0.8
26 Jordan Miller LAC 2.2 0.8 0.5
27 Kobe Brown LAC 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.