NBA games

SAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
96–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC3520172496
DEN28373517117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DEN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 33 21 4 0
Chris Duarte 26 18 3 1
Malik Monk 25 14 5 5
Domantas Sabonis S 32 13 10 7
Trey Lyles 23 8 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 20 7 4 3
Davion Mitchell S 16 5 1 3
Alex Len 16 4 2 0
Kevin Huerter S 18 4 1 2
Mason Jones 13 1 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 33 32 3 6
Aaron Gordon S 24 17 6 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 16 2 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 14 5 1
Nikola Jokic S 32 14 14 11
Peyton Watson 20 6 2 1
Christian Braun 20 5 3 0
Reggie Jackson 19 5 1 4
Hunter Tyson 4 3 2 0
Jay Huff 4 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 29-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.7 11.8 10.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.4 6.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.3 13.5 10.1
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.0 4.0 5.0
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.9 6.7 2.3
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 6.7 3.9
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 3.0 1.1
8 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 4.9 1.8
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.3 3.3 1.9
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.0 2.4 3.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.6 2.3 1.9
12 Peyton Watson DEN 7.8 4.0 1.3
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 3.6 0.9
14 Christian Braun DEN 6.6 3.5 1.3
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.1 1.4 1.5
16 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.7 1.1
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.1 1.7 0.7
18 Julian Strawther DEN 3.9 1.3 0.9
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 2.3 0.9
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 1.3 0.6
21 JaVale McGee SAC 2.5 2.2 0.3
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.3 0.6
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.7 0.3
24 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.0 0.4
25 Jay Huff DEN 2.3 1.0 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.2 0.7 0.7
27 Keon Ellis SAC 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.