NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
CLE32212822128123
CHI232926251217132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 42 25 13 1
Darius Garland S 44 23 2 5
Donovan Mitchell S 44 19 5 3
Caris LeVert 39 14 7 15
Isaac Okoro 24 13 0 2
Jarrett Allen S 34 11 4 4
Max Strus S 37 11 5 6
Dean Wade 14 5 2 1
Georges Niang 11 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 49 35 10 5
Nikola Vucevic S 40 24 13 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 48 21 3 4
Andre Drummond S 36 17 26 1
Coby White S 50 14 8 12
Onuralp Bitim 28 10 6 0
Julian Phillips 14 7 5 2
Jevon Carter 13 4 1 0
Dalen Terry 9 0 1 0
Terry Taylor 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Max Strus CLE
9%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.4 5.7 5.9
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.4 4.5 4.7
3 Coby White CHI 22.8 5.1 5.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.0 10.4 2.9
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.9 10.3 2.3
6 Darius Garland CLE 16.3 2.3 7.2
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.3 3.5 5.1
8 Evan Mobley CLE 15.5 10.1 3.1
9 Max Strus CLE 12.4 3.9 4.0
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.4 3.3 2.1
11 Caris LeVert CLE 10.4 4.7 5.4
12 Andre Drummond CHI 9.9 9.6 0.9
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.0 3.0 1.1
14 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.4 1.1
15 Dean Wade CLE 4.4 2.8 0.7
16 Sam Merrill CLE 4.2 1.2 1.2
17 Julian Phillips CHI 3.8 1.3 0.5
18 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.7 1.5
19 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.6 2.7 0.5
20 Terry Taylor CHI 3.0 2.2 0.6
21 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.7 0.6 0.3
22 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.