NBA games

MEM @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
101–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26273216101
MIN24263822110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 38 33 13 1
Ziaire Williams S 36 16 8 2
GG Jackson 27 14 3 0
Santi Aldama S 36 11 5 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 31 11 6 6
Jake LaRavia 19 5 5 2
Jordan Goodwin S 31 5 8 8
Lamar Stevens 10 4 1 0
Derrick Rose 6 2 0 1
Yuta Watanabe 7 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 34 2 4
Naz Reid 26 19 6 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 13 11 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 12 1 5
Jaden McDaniels S 34 12 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 27 8 8 0
Monte Morris 21 5 4 5
Mike Conley S 28 4 5 7
Jordan McLaughlin 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Jordan Goodwin MEM
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Ziaire Williams MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
48%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.7 6.1 5.4
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.7 4.8 3.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.3 7.2 2.6
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 12.3 1.9
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.9 5.8 5.9
6 GG Jackson MEM 14.5 4.6 1.4
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.1 5.3 1.3
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.0 3.2 5.5
9 Santi Aldama MEM 9.8 4.7 3.0
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.2 3.4 1.7
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.9 3.2 2.3
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.3 2.8 2.1
13 Lamar Stevens MEM 7.0 3.9 0.9
14 Derrick Rose MEM 6.9 2.1 3.0
15 John Konchar MEM 6.7 5.0 2.0
16 Monte Morris MIN 5.9 2.2 1.8
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.2 1.8 0.8
18 Matt Hurt MEM 4.1 1.7 0.7
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.0 1.6 1.4
20 Yuta Watanabe MEM 3.0 1.3 0.5
21 Jordan Goodwin MEM 2.7 1.0 0.6
22 Luka Garza MIN 2.1 0.7 0.4
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.0 0.6 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.9 0.3
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.