NBA games

DAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
136–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36304030136
TOR34332533125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home TOR
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 30 12 16
Kyrie Irving S 35 29 1 3
P.J. Washington S 31 23 6 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 16 4 4
Daniel Gafford 25 13 7 1
Dereck Lively II S 23 9 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 15 5 6 1
Josh Green S 31 5 6 1
Dante Exum 17 4 3 5
A.J. Lawson 1 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 38 28 5 9
RJ Barrett S 35 26 5 6
Scottie Barnes S 39 19 11 7
Jakob Poeltl S 29 16 7 6
Kelly Olynyk 18 13 0 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 33 11 4 0
Gradey Dick 19 7 3 0
Bruce Brown 21 5 8 3
Ochai Agbaji 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
10 Jordan Nwora TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.5 9.5 9.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.0 5.5 5.3
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.9 6.3 4.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.2 9.0 7.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.0 4.2 5.1
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.8 10.4 2.6
7 Dante Exum DAL 12.8 3.1 3.8
8 Josh Green DAL 12.6 4.0 2.8
9 P.J. Washington DAL 11.2 5.9 2.1
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 10.7 3.2 1.8
11 Gradey Dick TOR 10.6 2.5 1.5
12 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.5 3.0 1.9
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.2 7.6 1.3
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.9 9.3 1.2
15 Bruce Brown TOR 9.0 2.7 2.2
16 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.6 4.1 3.2
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.5 1.6 1.0
18 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.1 3.1 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.7 2.0 1.2
20 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.8 2.2 1.1
21 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.7 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.8 1.0
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.5 0.9 0.5
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.4 1.9 0.5
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.3 1.0 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.