NBA games

NO @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24293328114
IND40243227123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home IND
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 29 30 6 4
CJ McCollum S 34 23 6 3
Zion Williamson S 32 23 3 4
Herbert Jones S 38 14 4 1
Trey Murphy III 31 11 4 7
Jordan Hawkins 18 7 0 2
Larry Nance Jr. 23 6 6 1
Naji Marshall 28 0 8 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 7 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 24 11 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 17 3 13
Bennedict Mathurin S 30 16 4 2
Obi Toppin 24 16 6 2
Myles Turner S 27 14 10 0
Ben Sheppard 27 11 1 1
Jalen Smith 18 9 7 1
T.J. McConnell 19 8 4 9
Andrew Nembhard S 29 8 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
8%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.8 6.8 6.5
2 Brandon Ingram NO 25.6 5.8 6.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.7 6.2 4.3
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.6 4.6 4.0
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.5 3.6 9.6
6 Myles Turner IND 17.8 7.0 2.0
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.5 2.6
8 Herbert Jones NO 14.1 4.1 2.9
9 Trey Murphy III NO 12.0 4.6 1.7
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.2 9.3 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 2.7 3.9
12 T.J. McConnell IND 10.0 3.1 5.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 9.8 5.8 1.2
14 Naji Marshall NO 6.7 3.3 2.1
15 Obi Toppin IND 6.6 2.9 1.7
16 Matt Ryan NO 6.5 2.3 1.0
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.5 2.5 1.8
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.1 3.9 0.9
19 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 5.0 2.1
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.2 1.6 0.8
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 2.1 0.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 2.0 1.0
23 Dereon Seabron NO 4.0 1.9 1.0
24 Jalen Crutcher NO 3.8 1.3 1.2
25 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.6 2.0 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 2.0 1.2 0.9
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.7 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.