NBA games

MIA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
106–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA15313426106
POR2828202096

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home POR
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 33 22 4 9
Terry Rozier S 30 19 4 4
Duncan Robinson S 34 17 3 3
Bam Adebayo S 34 13 9 2
Kevin Love 14 8 2 2
Caleb Martin 27 8 3 1
Nikola Jovic S 15 8 2 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 7 3 4
Delon Wright 17 2 2 4
Haywood Highsmith 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 41 26 1 4
Jerami Grant S 40 24 7 6
Toumani Camara S 32 17 10 3
Deandre Ayton S 19 12 10 2
Matisse Thybulle 30 8 1 3
Jabari Walker 19 7 2 2
Ashton Hagans 11 2 3 1
Kris Murray S 30 0 3 2
Duop Reath 13 0 3 0
Dalano Banton 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
5 Jerami Grant POR
8%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
8%
7 Scoot Henderson POR
7%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
9 Delon Wright MIA
5%
10 Kris Murray POR
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
20%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.6 6.6 5.5
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.1 4.1 4.0
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.7 4.0 6.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.5 10.5 4.2
5 Tyler Herro MIA 18.6 4.5 5.2
6 Deandre Ayton POR 17.3 10.9 2.2
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.4 3.0 4.4
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.3 2.2 3.2
9 Terry Rozier MIA 12.3 3.8 5.2
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.0 4.6 2.1
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.1 3.9 2.0
12 Toumani Camara POR 8.4 4.2 1.6
13 Kevin Love MIA 7.9 5.8 1.7
14 Jabari Walker POR 7.9 6.4 1.1
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.3 2.8 0.8
16 Duop Reath POR 6.0 2.9 0.7
17 Kris Murray POR 5.6 3.4 1.4
18 Dalano Banton POR 5.4 2.0 1.6
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 2.1 1.5
20 Ashton Hagans POR 4.8 2.0 2.9
21 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.7 2.6 0.9
22 Delon Wright MIA 4.2 1.6 1.3
23 Alondes Williams MIA 4.1 1.8 0.8
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.4 0.7
25 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.