NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
95–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2921242195
OKC28322428112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 23 11 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 18 13 2
Jalen Green S 28 16 6 3
Aaron Holiday 16 10 1 0
Cam Whitmore 16 9 1 1
Dillon Brooks S 32 7 4 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 5 1 5
Jeff Green 17 5 0 3
Amen Thompson 17 2 8 0
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 31 8 3
Jalen Williams S 35 24 5 5
Chet Holmgren S 34 18 13 2
Josh Giddey S 20 14 7 4
Aaron Wiggins 16 6 2 0
Jaylin Williams 19 5 3 2
Gordon Hayward 19 5 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 22 3 3 1
Keyontae Johnson 2 2 1 0
Isaiah Joe 16 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.2 4.9 7.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.7 4.1 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.9 9.3 4.4
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.5 8.3 3.1
5 Jalen Green HOU 15.6 4.9 4.1
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.9 4.0 1.4
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.4 4.1 5.8
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.3 9.8 3.5
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 8.4 1.9
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 3.6 2.0
11 Gordon Hayward OKC 12.0 4.3 3.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.8 3.9 1.8
13 Josh Giddey OKC 11.5 6.0 3.8
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.8 3.0 1.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.6 2.0 2.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 2.6 1.2
17 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.8 1.5
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.1 1.1
19 Bismack Biyombo OKC 5.4 5.8 1.3
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.3 3.6 1.6
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.4 1.0
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 3.2 1.0
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 2.4 0.8
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.8 1.5 0.4
25 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.4 1.9 0.4
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.2 0.4
27 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.2 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.