NBA games

CHA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
85–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1610233685
MIL32263827123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 17 3 0
Tre Mann S 33 16 4 3
Brandon Miller S 33 14 2 2
Davis Bertans 15 12 0 0
Seth Curry 20 8 4 4
Nick Richards S 20 6 7 0
Bryce McGowens 5 4 2 2
Grant Williams 28 4 7 2
Vasilije Micic 17 2 0 3
Cody Martin S 22 2 6 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 24 24 8 1
Damian Lillard S 25 23 9 7
Bobby Portis 20 21 8 3
Jae Crowder S 23 10 7 2
Pat Connaughton 26 9 3 5
Danilo Gallinari 15 8 2 0
AJ Green 13 8 1 0
Patrick Beverley 16 7 3 3
MarJon Beauchamp 9 7 3 1
Malik Beasley S 26 6 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Cody Martin CHA
7%
8 Tre Mann CHA
6%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
8%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.3 10.7 7.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.7 4.5 7.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 22.7 7.2 4.3
4 Brandon Miller CHA 21.4 4.7 3.3
5 Bobby Portis MIL 15.6 6.8 2.1
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.4 5.1 2.0
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.0 9.7 1.3
8 Grant Williams CHA 12.0 4.3 1.7
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.9 3.5 1.8
10 Cody Martin CHA 10.2 4.4 4.6
11 Tre Mann CHA 8.7 3.6 3.4
12 Vasilije Micic CHA 8.0 2.0 4.8
13 Jae Crowder MIL 7.3 3.9 2.1
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 4.3 2.5
15 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.6 2.5 3.4
16 AJ Green MIL 6.0 1.7 0.8
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.9 2.8 1.0
18 Seth Curry CHA 5.4 1.7 1.1
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.4 2.0 1.4
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.6 1.7 0.8
21 JT Thor CHA 3.4 1.9 0.6
22 Davis Bertans CHA 3.0 1.0 0.5
23 Marques Bolden CHA 2.6 3.1 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.5 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 1.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.