NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
105–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET22282926105
CHI2926221895

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 26 5 5
Simone Fontecchio 21 17 3 1
Jaden Ivey S 34 15 2 5
Jalen Duren S 31 14 10 5
Ausar Thompson S 35 13 8 3
Isaiah Stewart S 34 11 9 0
Malachi Flynn 12 7 2 1
James Wiseman 17 2 5 0
Quentin Grimes 14 0 3 2
Evan Fournier 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 37 25 10 2
DeMar DeRozan S 40 25 3 4
Andre Drummond 28 20 11 0
Coby White S 41 10 5 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 8 6 6
Alex Caruso S 25 4 2 1
Dalen Terry 15 3 1 2
Terry Taylor 4 0 0 0
Jevon Carter 12 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Coby White CHI
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
8 Simone Fontecchio DET
7%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.2 4.5 5.4
2 Coby White CHI 24.1 4.6 6.3
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.8 4.7 7.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.2 10.5 3.2
5 Jaden Ivey DET 19.9 3.5 4.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.9 3.4 5.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 15.1 11.2 3.0
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.6 5.8 2.2
9 Simone Fontecchio DET 12.1 3.9 2.0
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.5 5.8 2.1
11 Alex Caruso CHI 11.0 4.7 3.6
12 Quentin Grimes DET 9.2 3.2 1.7
13 Andre Drummond CHI 9.1 9.4 0.9
14 Evan Fournier DET 7.8 2.3 1.2
15 Jevon Carter CHI 5.3 1.4 1.3
16 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.6 0.9
17 Julian Phillips CHI 4.6 1.5 0.7
18 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 4.1 2.5 0.8
19 Shake Milton DET 4.1 2.0 1.0
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 2.0 1.8
21 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.0 2.7 0.6
22 Malachi Flynn DET 3.9 1.4 1.0
23 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.5 1.8 1.0
24 Terry Taylor CHI 3.4 2.5 0.8
25 Onuralp Bitim CHI 3.1 0.6 0.4
26 Mike Muscala DET 2.8 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.