NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
105–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA21222438105
MIN29292729114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 39 21 6 6
Keldon Johnson 34 20 6 4
Victor Wembanyama S 34 17 13 5
Malaki Branham 21 12 2 0
Tre Jones S 29 11 8 6
Cedi Osman 22 10 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 19 7 3 1
Zach Collins 14 5 1 3
Blake Wesley 12 2 0 1
Jeremy Sochan S 16 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 34 5 5
Naz Reid 33 22 6 1
Mike Conley S 20 16 0 1
Rudy Gobert S 39 13 17 3
Jordan McLaughlin 16 9 2 3
Monte Morris 27 8 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 8 4 6
Jaden McDaniels S 26 2 5 1
Kyle Anderson S 15 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
17%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
6 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
7 Tre Jones SA
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.8 10.4 4.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.9 5.9 5.4
3 Devin Vassell SA 22.4 4.5 4.7
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.7 12.4 1.8
5 Tre Jones SA 11.5 3.5 5.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 10.9 3.7 1.7
7 Mike Conley MIN 10.8 3.5 5.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.7 6.7 2.3
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 5.6 1.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.4 3.0 1.9
11 Zach Collins SA 8.6 4.3 2.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.4 2.8 2.1
13 Malaki Branham SA 7.5 1.9 1.6
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.7 4.6
15 Julian Champagnie SA 5.9 3.7 1.8
16 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 1.6 3.3
17 Monte Morris MIN 5.3 2.0 1.7
18 Cedi Osman SA 4.9 2.0 1.2
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.6 1.4 1.3
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.5 1.3 0.5
21 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.7 0.4
22 Devonte' Graham SA 2.2 1.0 0.7
23 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.9 0.4
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.