NBA games

NO @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
11592
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO26222641115
NY1928202592

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home NY
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 36 26 7 4
Brandon Ingram S 34 24 6 5
Zion Williamson S 29 21 5 4
Herbert Jones S 34 15 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 7 9 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 3 6 1 0
Matt Ryan 12 6 1 1
Larry Nance Jr. 19 4 6 3
Naji Marshall 28 3 4 3
Jordan Hawkins 17 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 23 4 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 29 20 4 5
Josh Hart S 40 15 10 5
Precious Achiuwa S 40 15 7 2
Miles McBride S 40 10 3 8
Jericho Sims S 30 7 7 3
Alec Burks 16 2 2 1
DaQuan Jeffries 3 0 0 0
Charlie Brown Jr. 3 0 0 0
Jacob Toppin 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
18%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
14%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.9 3.6 7.8
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 6.5 6.4
3 Brandon Ingram NO 23.8 5.6 6.6
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 20.6 4.2 3.8
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 16.6 3.3 1.9
6 Josh Hart NY 14.2 9.1 5.1
7 Herbert Jones NO 13.4 4.2 3.2
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 13.1 10.5 1.9
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.2 9.0 1.9
10 Trey Murphy III NO 10.9 4.2 1.4
11 Alec Burks NY 10.6 2.9 1.8
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.4 8.3 2.3
13 Miles McBride NY 8.8 2.4 1.4
14 Matt Ryan NO 7.5 2.2 1.1
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.8 2.5 2.0
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.3 2.9 1.7
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.1 4.4 2.0
18 Jericho Sims NY 4.7 4.7 1.0
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.5 1.8 0.7
20 Dereon Seabron NO 4.3 1.7 1.0
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 1.8 0.6
22 Jacob Toppin NY 3.1 1.7 0.6
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.2 1.0 0.5
24 Cody Zeller NO 1.7 1.6 0.4
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.