NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
99–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI3021242499
BOS30233331117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 32 3 5
Ricky Council IV 19 16 4 1
Cameron Payne 16 13 0 2
Tobias Harris S 29 13 2 0
Mo Bamba 18 10 6 0
Buddy Hield S 29 6 2 4
Nicolas Batum 20 3 3 1
Kyle Lowry 23 3 2 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 22 3 1 1
Paul Reed S 14 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 31 6 1
Jayson Tatum S 35 29 11 8
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 23 12 1
Jrue Holiday S 35 13 7 4
Al Horford 21 8 5 1
Derrick White S 30 6 6 6
Sam Hauser 21 3 5 0
Luke Kornet 11 2 1 0
Payton Pritchard 16 2 2 0
Oshae Brissett 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
6 Paul Reed PHI
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Buddy Hield PHI
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.1 8.1 6.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 7.1 4.7
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.9 4.4 6.1
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.8 6.7 2.4
5 Derrick White BOS 17.2 3.8 5.3
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.7 6.5 3.4
7 Buddy Hield PHI 15.9 3.5 5.4
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 5.6 1.8
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.8 4.3 5.9
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.6 3.5 2.0
11 Paul Reed PHI 9.6 7.7 1.2
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 6.0 2.0
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.2 2.8 1.9
14 Cameron Payne PHI 8.0 2.2 2.4
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 2.6 1.1
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 7.4 4.3 2.0
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.8 2.6 0.8
18 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.7 3.0 3.6
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.5 3.6 2.0
20 Jaden Springer BOS 5.7 2.5 1.4
21 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 4.4 0.9
22 Darius Bazley PHI 4.4 3.2 1.4
23 Mo Bamba PHI 3.9 4.6 1.0
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.6 1.0 0.6
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.6 1.6 0.8
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.