NBA games

UTAH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
97–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1826252897
ATL26293435124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ATL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 29 22 1 3
Walker Kessler 30 14 12 0
Keyonte George S 34 14 1 6
Lauri Markkanen S 26 11 4 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 10 9 3 1
Taylor Hendricks S 29 8 8 1
Brice Sensabaugh 17 6 1 0
Jordan Clarkson 27 6 1 8
John Collins S 22 5 10 2
Kris Dunn 16 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 22 13 6
De'Andre Hunter 28 20 5 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 33 19 3 3
Dejounte Murray S 32 17 4 11
Saddiq Bey S 30 16 7 0
Clint Capela S 25 9 13 0
Bruno Fernando 18 8 3 1
Kobe Bufkin 21 7 2 5
Garrison Mathews 17 6 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:09 Q1
"Clint Capela makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 John Collins UTAH
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.3 6.0 8.0
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.0 3.1 6.5
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.9 7.4 3.0
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.1 9.7 4.6
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.8 3.4 5.7
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.2 4.2 4.3
7 John Collins UTAH 16.5 10.6 2.3
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 16.4 5.8 1.9
9 Keyonte George UTAH 16.3 3.6 5.2
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.9 3.7 2.1
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.9 7.3 1.5
12 Clint Capela ATL 10.8 10.4 1.3
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.9 7.7 1.5
14 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.0 1.5 2.7
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.8 3.2 3.6
16 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.7 3.8 0.9
17 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.4 3.8 1.0
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.7 2.1 1.3
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.4 0.8
20 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.9 1.5 0.8
21 Patty Mills ATL 3.4 0.9 0.9
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.0 2.2 0.7
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.8 1.4 0.6
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.8 1.3 0.8
25 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.8 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.