NBA games

GS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
123–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS23373825123
WSH25331737112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home WSH
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 27 25 3 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 28 21 6 5
Stephen Curry S 30 18 5 6
Gary Payton II 18 13 4 2
Moses Moody S 23 12 3 1
Chris Paul 22 9 4 6
Brandin Podziemski S 28 7 4 4
Draymond Green S 29 6 8 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis 9 5 2 0
Dario Saric 14 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 38 27 12 2
Marvin Bagley III S 33 20 9 2
Corey Kispert S 33 20 3 5
Landry Shamet S 32 16 0 1
Tyus Jones S 36 14 6 17
Jordan Poole 29 12 3 5
Jared Butler 11 2 1 2
Richaun Holmes 12 1 3 0
Eugene Omoruyi 7 0 3 0
Johnny Davis 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 10-foot two point shot (Corey Kispert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
22%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
13%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Landry Shamet WSH
6%
10 Chris Paul GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
78%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
12%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.6 4.4 7.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.0 6.0 3.4
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.3 6.5 4.0
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.0 3.8 5.2
5 Corey Kispert WSH 15.9 3.6 2.5
6 Klay Thompson GS 15.4 4.2 2.3
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.9 4.9 2.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.8 6.8 5.3
9 Tyus Jones WSH 13.5 2.5 10.1
10 Draymond Green GS 12.3 8.4 5.6
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.3 7.7 1.6
12 Chris Paul GS 11.1 4.1 6.4
13 Moses Moody GS 7.1 2.7 0.9
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.4 3.5 1.1
15 Lester Quinones GS 6.2 2.7 1.9
16 Landry Shamet WSH 6.2 2.2 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 3.1 1.1
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.3 4.1 1.0
19 Dario Saric GS 5.1 2.8 2.0
20 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.5 2.9 0.8
21 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.1 1.6
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.0 2.6 1.1
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.6 3.9 1.3
24 Johnny Davis WSH 2.7 1.6 0.7
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.4 0.9 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.0 0.7
27 Jules Bernard WSH 1.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.