NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
81–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2519152281
ORL33253020108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 25 15 1 2
Trendon Watford 19 14 7 0
Nic Claxton S 27 10 5 1
Cameron Johnson S 29 9 1 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 20 7 3 5
Jalen Wilson 23 5 3 1
Lonnie Walker IV 21 4 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 4 6 1
Mikal Bridges S 29 4 2 2
Keon Johnson 4 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 28 21 5 5
Moritz Wagner 19 16 5 2
Markelle Fultz 25 12 3 1
Cole Anthony 26 12 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 10 7 2
Caleb Houstan S 31 9 6 1
Jalen Suggs S 16 9 1 2
Anthony Black 22 8 4 1
Gary Harris S 21 8 2 2
Goga Bitadze 7 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot two point shot (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
9 Anthony Black ORL
8%
10 Gary Harris ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
33%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 23.3 5.2 4.5
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.4 3.8 3.8
3 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.5 6.3 1.8
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.3 3.5 3.6
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.1 4.2 2.2
6 Dennis Schroder BKN 11.1 2.9 3.9
7 Nic Claxton BKN 10.5 8.4 1.8
8 Cole Anthony ORL 9.2 3.7 2.5
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.9 4.3 3.2
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.7 4.0 1.0
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.4 2.3 2.0
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.9 4.2 1.8
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.0 5.6 1.2
14 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.8 2.8 1.4
15 Gary Harris ORL 6.8 2.2 1.5
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.5 3.2 2.9
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.4 1.6 2.3
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.4 2.4 1.1
19 Trendon Watford BKN 5.0 1.8 0.8
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.1 1.4 0.6
21 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.9 1.9 0.6
22 Keon Johnson BKN 3.9 0.8 0.8
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.0 1.2 0.6
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.7 2.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.