NBA games

DAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
119–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24322637119
CLE23372338121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CLE
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 45 9 14
Kyrie Irving S 39 30 6 3
P.J. Washington S 35 11 2 2
Dereck Lively II S 22 9 6 0
Josh Green S 29 7 1 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 4 3 1
Daniel Gafford 7 4 2 0
Maxi Kleber 27 4 7 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 9 3 0 0
Jaden Hardy 5 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 31 7 6
Max Strus S 26 21 4 4
Jarrett Allen S 33 19 9 0
Evan Mobley S 28 12 9 7
Caris LeVert 28 11 4 6
Georges Niang 21 10 5 0
Isaac Okoro 25 9 6 5
Darius Garland S 32 8 1 7
Dean Wade 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 5-foot hook shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.1 9.5 8.5
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 5.1 6.0
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.2 5.5 5.2
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.4 11.0 2.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 10.1 2.7
6 Darius Garland CLE 15.7 2.6 6.7
7 Josh Green DAL 12.5 4.1 2.6
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.0 6.2 1.9
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.1 10.0 1.2
10 Max Strus CLE 11.1 3.7 4.0
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 10.8 3.1 1.8
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.5 3.0 1.9
13 Caris LeVert CLE 10.2 4.7 5.5
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.1 7.5 1.2
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 7.9 3.7 1.7
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.7 1.7 1.0
17 Georges Niang CLE 7.2 2.9 1.2
18 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.7 3.0 1.1
19 Sam Merrill CLE 4.8 1.5 1.3
20 Dean Wade CLE 4.4 2.7 0.8
21 Markieff Morris DAL 3.2 1.8 0.6
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.7 0.9
23 Damian Jones CLE 2.1 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.