NBA games

MIA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
121–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32333620121
SAC33291929110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 28 10 7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 38 26 5 2
Kevin Love 15 19 7 1
Caleb Martin S 40 16 6 1
Haywood Highsmith 29 15 4 0
Delon Wright S 35 13 2 5
Duncan Robinson S 39 4 4 11
Cole Swider 5 0 1 0
Alondes Williams 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 36 28 5 1
De'Aaron Fox S 39 27 8 6
Domantas Sabonis S 40 14 14 10
Kevin Huerter S 38 14 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 20 10 2 0
Malik Monk 21 8 2 7
Trey Lyles 21 5 3 0
Davion Mitchell 9 4 1 3
Chris Duarte 17 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes alley oop layup (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
18%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
5 Harrison Barnes SAC
11%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
7 Caleb Martin MIA
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.7 4.6 6.4
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 24.1 6.7 5.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.1 13.5 9.7
4 Malik Monk SAC 20.9 4.3 5.1
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.0 10.3 4.1
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 13.2 3.3 1.2
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.8 3.2 2.4
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.6 2.2 2.1
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.2 3.9 2.1
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.2 4.0 2.1
11 Keegan Murray SAC 9.8 4.3 1.8
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.8 3.7 1.0
13 Kevin Love MIA 6.6 5.3 1.8
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.6 2.7 0.9
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.3 2.8 1.2
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.2 1.4 1.4
17 Jamal Cain MIA 4.7 2.0 0.6
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.0 1.7 0.7
19 Delon Wright MIA 2.7 0.9 0.8
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 1.4 0.6
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.6 1.2 0.4
22 Cole Swider MIA 2.5 0.5 0.5
23 JaVale McGee SAC 2.3 2.2 0.3
24 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.0 0.4
25 Keon Ellis SAC 2.0 0.8 0.4
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.