NBA games

BKN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
111–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30362322111
MEM1822262086

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MEM
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 26 18 2 5
Cam Thomas S 29 14 3 5
Lonnie Walker IV 19 13 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 25 13 9 4
Cameron Johnson 25 12 2 3
Mikal Bridges S 31 11 3 2
Nic Claxton S 21 10 4 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 8 8 2
Ben Simmons 14 4 6 3
Trendon Watford 7 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lamar Stevens 23 17 6 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 15 4 1
Luke Kennard S 24 11 2 0
Jake LaRavia 28 10 5 2
Santi Aldama S 20 7 5 1
Ziaire Williams S 25 6 2 0
GG Jackson 23 6 5 0
Derrick Rose 15 6 2 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 25 6 3 5
Yuta Watanabe 22 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
17%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
29%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.5 5.2 4.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.0 3.9 4.2
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 20.5 4.1 3.9
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 18.0 6.5 6.3
5 GG Jackson MEM 16.0 4.7 1.8
6 Luke Kennard MEM 13.6 2.8 3.9
7 Nic Claxton BKN 11.9 9.5 2.0
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.8 4.7 2.5
9 Dennis Schroder BKN 11.4 3.4 4.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.6 5.1 3.3
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.6 2.9 2.2
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.3 2.3 1.7
13 John Konchar MEM 7.8 5.5 2.5
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.7 6.1 1.3
15 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.4 4.2 1.7
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.4 3.6 3.3
17 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 7.0 4.8
18 Derrick Rose MEM 7.3 2.1 3.2
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.2 2.9 1.4
20 Lamar Stevens MEM 5.9 3.8 0.9
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.2 1.5 0.6
22 Matt Hurt MEM 4.1 1.4 0.7
23 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.7 1.8 0.5
24 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.6 1.5 0.9
25 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.